As expected the price has been confined to a 1306 - 1310 range and I would not expect that to change much until tomorrow. Tomorrow morning we have 3 scenarios to consider assuming that the FED´s decision would actually impact the market.
1. Markets rally in the morning which usually leads to a sell off on the news (buy the rumour, sell the fact rule) in this case I will just stay long and raise my SL accordingly so I close my 10 days old long and find a selling opportunity afterwards. If the prices goes as far as 1347 then I will close the long position and try a sell scenario @1349, 1358, 1366 or 1374.
2. The market just stay where it is now and sells on the news down to 1300 and rebounds quickly, in that case I recommend placing stop orders @1305 (whitih the nex minute after the sell off) on your shorts for a reversal back up and then a rally.
3. A sell off which takes the price below 1299 and closes the day there, in that case I would just hedge the long position @1298 and then try to release the long @1305 at a lose and stay short.
1. Markets rally in the morning which usually leads to a sell off on the news (buy the rumour, sell the fact rule) in this case I will just stay long and raise my SL accordingly so I close my 10 days old long and find a selling opportunity afterwards. If the prices goes as far as 1347 then I will close the long position and try a sell scenario @1349, 1358, 1366 or 1374.
2. The market just stay where it is now and sells on the news down to 1300 and rebounds quickly, in that case I recommend placing stop orders @1305 (whitih the nex minute after the sell off) on your shorts for a reversal back up and then a rally.
3. A sell off which takes the price below 1299 and closes the day there, in that case I would just hedge the long position @1298 and then try to release the long @1305 at a lose and stay short.
nice thanks for the updates sir cesato
ReplyDeleteThank you sir.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the update sir!
ReplyDeleteCheers mate,
ReplyDeletealso still hoping to release my long @1346
Option 1 happens, sir. Can you suggest where I can close my short.. Now 1314 is it any chance for the market to retrace? So i got a better position to close my short, thx sir
ReplyDeleteHard to say but I could imagine that the low, in case of a dip, is 1300 / 1304 below 1300 and the sell off would gather speed so I'm not sure about the dip however should it happen it must reverse back up between 1300 and 1304 for the bullish scenario to continue.
DeleteHi Cesar. Thank you for the useful information always. I had bad experience when I reacted to the news right after it was released. Now I try to take some time to assess the true direction and enter maybe in 15-30min, but it's usually economic data which I can see at a glance. In case of FED rate decisions, how fast you suggest I should make decisions and how you do it? Appreciate if you can share your tactics with us just for our information.
DeleteThanks sir.. waiting for your update today :)
ReplyDeleteAny update, sir cesar?
ReplyDelete